Global Ecommerce Forecast & Growth Projections
As the 2-year boom subsides, plenty of bright spots remain. The pandemic-driven two-year ecommerce boom of 2020 is set to decelerate considerably this year. Brick-and-mortar retail, meanwhile, returned with a vengeance last year and is in better shape than expected going into 2022.
Executive Summary
Worldwide retail and retail ecommerce spending is expected to stabilize in 2022, after two years of unpredictable circumstances and unusual growth patterns. Even in a slower-growth environment, total new spending will be enormous. This report explores what will happen in 2022 and where marketers can find new digital buyers in 2022 and beyond.
Key Stat: This year, worldwide ecommerce sales will exceed $5 trillion for the first time, accounting for more than a fifth of overall retail sales. Despite slowing growth, total spending will surge past $7 trillion by 2025.
| Metric | 2022 Projection | 2025 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Worldwide Ecommerce Sales | Exceed $5 trillion | Surge past $7 trillion |
| Share of Total Retail Sales | More than 20% | Growth continues |
Economic Hurdles and Market Revisions
E-commerce revenues are forecast to shrink for the first time ever, according to the latest forecast from Statista Digital Market Outlook. Supply chain issues are the largest single weakening factor, with inflation also playing a significant part in the downward revision. In what would be the first time ever, e-commerce revenues are forecast to shrink y-o-y in 2022.
The widely expected global recession and subsequent increases in unemployment leave the e-commerce sector with significant hurdles to overcome. Nevertheless, the market is now compelled to tackle substantial questions about how to go forward. "Even if there is a lot of headwind at the moment, we still believe online shares will eventually increase and revenue growth will get back on track."
Global Trade and Digital Buyers
Cross-border e-commerce has generated trillions of dollars in economic activity continues to accelerate and the ability of data to move across borders underpins new business models, boosting global GDP by 10% in the last decade alone. This report answers 3 key questions:
- What is the global outlook for retail sales and retail ecommerce sales in 2022 and beyond?
- Which countries and regions will produce notable ecommerce growth figures—either positive or negative—for this year and through 2025?
- How many new digital buyers will come online this year, and where can they be found?
The Fourth Industrial Revolution – driven by rapid technological change and digitalization – has already had a profound impact on global trade, economic growth and social progress. However, digital trade barriers including outdated regulations and fragmented governance of emerging technologies could potentially hamper these gains.
Emerging Trends and Opportunities
The application of emerging technologies in trade looks to increase efficiency and inclusivity in global trade by enabling more small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to repeat its benefits and by closing the economic gap between developed and developing countries. Marketers must look at our latest worldwide, regional, and country-level forecasts for total retail sales, retail ecommerce, retail mcommerce, and digital buyers to identify where trends will stand out among countries and regions in 2022.
