Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast: Milestones and Shifting Growth Dynamics
The high-growth era for ecommerce is over in most markets, but highlights can still be found. Retail and ecommerce sales will underperform our previous forecasts as the retail outlook for 2025 is worse than previously anticipated. However, many smaller emerging markets are still in line for strong years, and ecommerce continues to claw share from traditional retail.
Market Challenges in 2025
Ecommerce growth worldwide will decelerate in 2025, due mostly to weakness in China’s economy and trade-war-induced stresses in the major markets of North America. Consumers are skittish in several major markets around the world thanks to US-led trade hostilities and the possibility of a recession across North America. China, meanwhile, remains in an extended slump. Despite these factors, the world is large, and much of it will be only tangentially impacted by these challenges; thus, retail and ecommerce sales worldwide will muddle through.
Global E-Commerce Passes the US$5 Trillion Mark
After years of steady expansion, 2026 marks a historic moment: global e-commerce revenue surpasses the US$5 trillion threshold. The global e-commerce market reaches a historic milestone in 2026, surpassing US$5 trillion for the first time. While growth has moderated since the pandemic highs, the market continues to expand at a healthy pace—driven by rising adoption, improved logistics, and the continued shift from offline to online across emerging markets.
Regional and Category Shifts
2026 highlights a clear divergence across regions. Latin America emerges as the world’s fastest-growing e-commerce region, significantly outperforming the global average. Meanwhile, the GSA region (Germany, Switzerland, Austria) registers the weakest growth among major economic blocs. In terms of product categories, Grocery continues to be one of the strongest growth drivers globally. In 2026, it surpasses a 10% share of global e-commerce revenue—an important structural shift that reflects broader adoption and new quick-commerce hybrid models.
| Metric / Category | Forecast Data (2026) |
|---|---|
| Global E-commerce Revenue | Surpassing US$5 Trillion |
| Marketplace Share of B2C Spending | 87% |
| Grocery E-commerce Growth | 14.4% |
| Grocery Share of Total E-commerce | Over 10% |
| TikTok Shop GMV Growth | Nearly 60% |
The Dominance of Marketplaces and Social Commerce
The marketplace model continues its global dominance. By 2026, 87% of all B2C physical e-commerce spending flows through marketplaces—up 1 percentage point from 2025. This reflects expanding seller ecosystems, platform-native advertising, and the continued rise of social-commerce-driven marketplaces. TikTok Shop emerges as one of the fastest-growing global eCommerce players, expanding its GMV by nearly 60% in 2026. The platform’s hybrid model—fuelled by algorithmic discovery, livestream selling and aggressive merchant incentives—continues to outperform expectations.
Competitive Landscape for Retail Giants
Amid slowing global growth, multiple top retailers experience stagnation or even mild decline. JD.com contracts, while Tmall and Taobao grow only marginally. Pinduoduo and Amazon continue expanding, though at moderate rates. Meanwhile, Shein and Temu encounter cooling momentum. Growth slows significantly, signaling a shift from hyper-expansion to more sustainable, moderated trajectories. In this environment, TikTok Shop stands out as the clear outperformer among major retail giants facing pressure.
